The International Journal of Infectious Diseases looked at how many people in Italy got and died from influenza over 4 winter flu seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17.

In each of those Winter flu seasons, it is estimated there were 5-290-000 cases of influenza-like-illness in Italy. In a population of 60million. That means that influenza infects about 9% of the Italian population each season.

During this study period, on average about 12 to 41 people / 100-000 died from influenza. So in a population of 60 million, that is about 17-000 deaths per year from influenza in Italy. That is 0.028% of the population

Thus far with COVID 19 Italy has had 84-000 cases with 9100 deaths (half the annual influenza deaths already), and this is only 33 days after they reached their 100th case, this is 10.5% of people dying. That equates to COVID 19 having a 370-fold increased death rate compared with influenza for those infected in Italy! And considering they have reached peak capacity of all their ventilators, that death rate may sadly rise!

Read full article on: sciencedirect.com

Dr Lachlan Soper